TL;DR
A 95% survival rate means 95 out of 100 historical starting cohorts saw your plan last the full horizon. It does NOT mean a 95% probability of future success — that's a different question that no methodology can answer with confidence.
In short
The chart is descriptive of history, not predictive of the future. Use it to find the bad historical cohorts your plan fails against — usually 1929, 1966, 2000 — and ask whether you're comfortable with that exposure. The future may be better or worse than any of those.
We're working on a full deep-dive for this article — including historical data, charts, and worked examples. In the meantime, you can run a free simulation to explore the underlying numbers yourself.
Frequently asked questions
- Should I aim for 100% survival?
- Costly. Going from 95% to 100% typically means working an extra 2-4 years or accepting a much lower withdrawal rate. Most planners take the 95%.
- What if my plan survives historically but feels uncomfortable?
- Trust your gut. The historical data doesn't include emotional cost. If you'd panic-sell in a 50% drawdown, a 'safe' rate that requires you to hold isn't really safe for you.
Stress-test your own FIRE plan
FIRE Wealth OS runs your savings rate and expenses against every historical market starting point since 1871. Free to use, no card required.